Volume 2 - Pop It & The World of Fidget
We remember fidget toys, whether fondly or not there's more to them than memes and trends.
Who could forget?
For those that cashed out on this little toy invention, good job. But for those that put in their purchase orders trying to catch this wave, I hope you were able to survive.
This gadget was everywhere and died off as quickly as it entered the scene. But before we discredit this product as a black swan, there’s more than meets the eye.
When trying to innovate in an industry plagued by copycats, a good mental model to build a foundation when researching products is distilling the why.
This means asking why certain products reach their virality and general popularity rather than accepting it as a fact of the status quo. Before I started my e-commerce business, I never bothered to ever question as a consumer why something was popular. Now as opportunistic e-commerce entrepreneurs—you and I need to start asking these questions.
Because fidget toys never really left, they’ve only just changed shapes.
Why
“[Fidget spinners have] been promoted as helping people who have trouble focusing or those who may need to fidget to relieve nervous energy, anxiety, or psychological stress. There are claims that a fidget spinner can help calm down people who have anxiety and other neurological disorders like ADHD and autism. However, as of May 2017, there is no scientific evidence that they are effective as a treatment for ADHD.” - Wikipedia
Although unfounded by scientific evidence, the anecdotal claims of fidget gadgets are positive among kids and purchasers. We can go back and forth on whether or not items such as stress balls really even help relieve stress—but with such a subjective array of experiences, it’s accepted nowadays that for some it works, and for some, it simply doesn’t.
The why behind these fidget items is to alleviate/subdue anxiety, ADHD, and or any other neurological disorders. It’s what all the copy and marketing behind the products suggest. This is powerful concept of elevating a toy (or any product) into something that attempts to resonate on a deeper level and solve a problem.
I had a spirited conversation with a subscriber regarding educational kids toy products and we both shared optimism for the opportunities available in the category, especially STEM toys (science, technology, engineering, and math). I will be covering more detail on the STEM space in general in a future volume, but one thing worth noting for now is that there is a way to frame products to parents in a way that reflects an investment in their child’s development and well-being.
Now take a look at this:
For those that held on from late-2017 until now, I applaud you because there’s a new rise of fidget toy searches online.
The hottest new fidget toy is the “Push Pop It Bubble Sensory Toy”:
It’s rare that GOATMOAT comes across such astronomical search result numbers while bearing sub 300 average review counts on Amazon.
Competition
Shopify/DTC
The only company that has strong SEO on page one of Google is a company called Mastermind. They are an established brand with a retail-level distribution. These are the other paid placements. This type of product would absolutely thrive with video ads run on Facebook and TikTok.
Amazon
At the time of writing, these are the significant stats of the top 10 search results for the keyword “pop it”:
~930k monthly searches
$63k average monthly revenue
259 average review count (number of reviews)
4.67 average rating (out of 5)
$12.85 average sale price
Every listing on the first page was listed in early 2021.
The biggest listing has projected monthly revenues of $189k and has 961 reviews.
A recently launched listing that has made it to the first page is projecting around $44k in revenue with only 45 reviews.
Opportunities
There are many redundant listings, all types of variations, and colors, so focus your efforts on creating a product offering that isn’t already available.
Although average review counts aren’t too high to compete against, don’t forget to account for the average review rating. For such a commoditized product, a high rating such as 4.67 is very positive, you won’t be able to really come in and “fix” any problems with the product.
Our Idea
‘Among Us’ is a popular game of late among the younger generation. Changing the mold or shape of the fidget toy would be a great way to differentiate your listing while offering a deeper level of affinity towards the design. As long as you aren’t infringing on any copyright or licensing issues, you can create fruit-shaped pop-it toys, animal-shaped sets all in a variety of colors.
Best Case Forecast
Sale Price: $9.99
Landed Cost: ~$1.5-
Amazon Referral Fee: $1.5
Amazon Fulfilment Fee: $2.5
Gross Margin: ~$4.49 (45%)
ACOS: ~40%
TACOS: ~10%
Sales Potential: 3000-6000 units/month
Revenue Potential: $30K - $60K/month
Net Profit Potential: $9K - $18K/month (30%)
Final Thoughts
The numbers are awesome, they’re really stellar at the moment but run a high risk of changing quickly. There are already a few dozen sellers that have great ratings and volume, likely from China where they can really drive the prices down. We’re staying away from this one.
If you’re able to stomach any potential races to the bottom, find a way to hedge that risk by bundling a few of these products together. We’re thinking of fidget kits, exclusive shapes, colors, and sizes, maybe even licensing partnerships with large iconic characters like Disney, Marvel, etc.
Either way, think bigger than just copying and pasting what’s out there with this one and you’ll be able to survive the downtrend. Specific fidget items will come and go but the niche is here to stay.
Make sure you subscribe if you want in on these product opportunity breakdowns and more. We’ll be releasing weekly deep dives and longer lists of other product ideas that have legs.
“Think like a goat, create a moat”,
GOATMOAT